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  • #17276

    Adam Fitzpatrick

    Trending a market is always going to be one of the key fundamental steps when creating a forecast. Therefore, it is vital that the trend is, at the very least, well thought through – so, what is the best way to approach your trending section within Epi+?

    When creating the trending section within your forecast using Epi+ you will be presented with the option of either Manual or Automatic trending modes.

    The automatic approach adopts linear regression as its basis. This is an excellent option for a relatively stable market and where the past is likely to be a strong indicator of the future. However, in a market with wider variation in the historical data, or where the past is less likely to be a clear indicator of future performance, then using the automatic approach may result in your trending market shares not reflecting reality. To overcome this, the manual trending option is worth considering. This allows you to control the future steady state shares, which in turn gives you greater control over the trending market dynamic.

    Take a look at where we demonstrate both the automatic and the manual approach. In this example, you can see how both trends vary quite significantly and one of these will likely be closer to what you expect to happen in the future for those products already in the market. Of course, you can tweak the manual approach as required. But ultimately, the objective of the trending section is to provide that baseline forecast – whether this is achieved by the automatic or manual approach, you have the power to decide.

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