Shaping your forecasting.
Welcome to theHub
-
Will James started the topic Demand more from your analytics (July 2020) in the forum Sales+ 3 years, 9 months ago
Excel is a fantastic tool and is still the software of choice for most pharmaceutical forecasts. However, Excel wasn’t built for advanced analytics and in many cases can start to slow down if you have multiple products over many time periods over many different countries/ indications.
As a result, we have recently enhanced Sales+ so that you h…[Read more]
-
Will James started the topic Tailoring your events to the specifics of your forecast (July 2020) in the forum Onco+ 3 years, 9 months ago
We have had several requests from clients using Onco+ for the ability to determine the specific number of events that you can include in each of your forecasts. In a fairly static market, you may only need a couple of events whilst in a more dynamic market you may need 15, 20 or more events to be able to fully model the future activity in the…[Read more]
-
Will James started the topic Futureproofing your forecast model (July 2020) in the forum Flow+ 3 years, 9 months ago
Forecasting is always an iterative process that often involves input from several colleagues in several different departments of the business. This helps to improve the quality of the forecast and also buy-in to the resulting forecast outputs – but it does bring with it challenges in terms of different demands and requirements from the f…[Read more]
-
Will James started the topic Forecasting different channels/ geographies (July 2020) in the forum Epi+ 3 years, 9 months ago
It is extremely common for forecasts to need to account for different channels or geographic regions so that inputs and outputs can be independently generated for each channel or region.
For example, in Canada it may well be the case that your forecast needs to split by each ‘province’, so that you can input different prices, market shares and…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic How to choose the most appropriate trending methodology (May 2020) in the forum Sales+ 3 years, 12 months ago
In a Sales+ forecast model, the trending options available to you are more sophisticated and wide ranging than other forecasting methodologies. So how do you decide which trending option is the most appropriate?
As a starting point, we would recommend using your preferred trending method for all the SKUs/ products/ regimens in your model. This…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Accounting for chronic patients in your forecast (May 2020) in the forum Onco+ 3 years, 12 months ago
It may well be the case that you have patients who are expected to remain on treatment indefinitely, and hence you need to factor this chronic treatment of patients into your forecast model.
With an Onco+ forecast, the easiest way of doing this is to use the ‘persistency curve’ feature within the Therapy Duration section. In this section of you…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Getting the most out of SimScore (May 2020) in the forum Flow+ 3 years, 12 months ago
SimScore is potentially a very useful tool sitting within your Flow+ addin that can help support you in estimating the future peak share of a new product (be it your own, a competitor or both).
- When should I use SimScore? Consider using SimScore whenever you have a forecast model that includes a future, new product entering the market.
- Why…
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Running a risk analysis on consolidated revenues (May 2020) in the forum Epi+ 3 years, 12 months ago
Risk analysis is a very versatile analytical tool available across all the FC+ addins. It may well be the case that you have several forecasts that you have consolidated to create a total, aggregated view of your forecasted revenues. Your next step may then be to create a risk analysis based upon these consolidated revenues and to understand the…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Dealing with multiple SKUs and prices (Apr 2020) in the forum Sales+ 4 years ago
Sales based forecasts can often be extremely lengthy when it comes to the requirement to cover all SKUs for each of the individual products within the market. However, with Sales+ you can cover up to 250 products or individual SKUs (should you need more than 250, then you can utilise our innovative link to Microsoft PowerBI reporting to facilitate…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Dealing with regimens vs products (Apr 2020) in the forum Onco+ 4 years ago
It may well be the case that in certain oncology forecasts you need to model products, whilst in others you need to model regimens. Onco+ is designed to provide you with the flexibility of either approach – and in the final section of your forecast when you convert to revenues, a consistent basis upon which to do this regardless of whether you h…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Creating your own custom uptake curves (Apr 2020) in the forum Flow+ 4 years ago
Within Flow+ you have access to the 5 standard, pre-built uptake curves. These can be used in both the trending section and the eventing section to help you determine the speed of uptake of each product in your forecast (please note that this does not affect the time to peak, which is a separate input, only the speed at which uptake happens as…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Tailoring your conversion section (Apr 2020) in the forum Epi+ 4 years ago
The conversion section of Epi+ is relatively simple and straight forward – please note that we will be enhancing this in Epi+ v2 which is due to be released in the next few weeks. For now, it is very easy to customise your required outputs in the current version of Epi+. The important thing to note is that the consolidator pulls through the f…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Factoring in supply chain considerations to your forecast model (Mar 2020) in the forum Sales+ 4 years, 1 month ago
Sales based forecasting is often undertaken in markets where the product is relatively established. As a result, strategic forecasting is important but so too is the shorter term, operational side of forecasting. Being able to link the two together in a way that provides the longer term view of the future and also the shorter term demand…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Dealing with non-solid (liquid) tumours (Mar 2020) in the forum Onco+ 4 years, 1 month ago
Given the many challenges in oncology forecasting, you may well find yourself having to deal with multiple ‘stages’ of treatment within a single line of treatment. For example, 1st line treatment could be conditioning chemotherapy, followed by a stem cell transplant, followed by maintenance therapy. At each of these stages, you may have pat…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic How to deal with market expansion (Mar 2020) in the forum Flow+ 4 years, 1 month ago
It is often the case that forecast models need to be able to account for market expansion. This can be done by allowing the market shares to go beyond 100%, but this is regarded as a fairly untidy way of doing so. An alternative, cleaner way of handling market expansion is to include a row within your forecast model that captures, for example,…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Creating simple sales-based forecasts in the forum Epi+ 4 years, 1 month ago
So, you are using Epi+ to help create your epidemiology based forecasts but are now faced with the task of creating a sales based forecast model? Epi+ is flexible enough to allow you to set up a simple structure from which you can create a sales based forecast model. To do so, simply edit your up front ‘epi’ section so that this provides you wit…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Forecasting acute treatments in the forum Epi+ 4 years, 2 months ago
So you have a scenario for your forecast where you are trying to model not only an acute treatment, but a patient population that once treated, they are immediately removed from the patient pool. A good example of this is that of a vaccination.
In a standard epidemiology forecast, as this is cross sectional by time period, the usual starting…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Forecasting long term, chronic patients in the forum Flow+ 4 years, 2 months ago
Across several disease types, there may well be the need to account for ‘chronic’ patients. By this, we mean patients who will receive a treatment indefinitely in order to ensure the condition is effectively controlled. Examples of chronic treatment include HIV, asthma, diabetes and arthritis to name just a few. Being able to identify and for…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Forecasting by biomarker, not tumour type in the forum Onco+ 4 years, 2 months ago
Historically, oncology forecasts have often focussed on a specific tumour type as the basis for how the model is structured and populated. If you have an asset that spans across multiple tumour types, this can make forecasting more challenging (especially if you are also factoring in multiple countries and scenarios).
In more recent times, the…[Read more]
-
Kristian Barker started the topic Linking an NPV to your sales forecast in the forum Sales+ 4 years, 2 months ago
As with many a forecast, the resulting outputs may well be used to drive a go/ no-go decision with regard to progressing the development of as asset or purchasing an asset from another company. To help with this decision, senior management will require more information than just the predicted net sales from your forecast model. They will need to…[Read more]
- Load More
About J+D Forecasting.
At J+D it's our mission to simplify the complex nature of pharmaceutical forecasting to help support informed decision making for the future. We are dedicated to helping pharmaceutical and biotech companies use intelligent forecasting solutions to make strategic and operational investment decisions.
For decades, we have crafted bespoke pharmaceutical forecasting models, innovative software and interactive training solutions, each of which has been designed with client needs in mind, allowing businesses to create more intelligent and consistent insights.